基于模糊-集对分析的水电项目方案综合评价

针对水电工程项目方案评价中的主观性和随意性所引起的投资风险,以某水电站的4个项目方案为例,建立基于模糊综合评价法的水电工程项目方案指标评价体系。在此基础上,结合模糊综合评价法构建隶属度函数与集对分析反映同、异、反系统的特点,提出了基于模糊-集对分析的评价模型。同时,由变异系数法客观确定了指标权重,通过划分方案指标的评价等级并构造联系度函数而得到集对联系度与集对势,给出了水电项目各方案综合水平发展趋势与不确定排序,从而提高了项目方案的优选效率并降低了业主或投资方投资风险。

Comprehensive evaluation of hydropower project scheme based on analysis of fuzzy- set pair

Aimed at the investment risk which is brought from the subjectivity and randomness of owners or investors in evaluation of hydropower project scheme,taking the four project schemes of hydropower station for example,the paper established the evaluation index system of hydropower project based on method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. On the basis,combining method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,the paper constructed membership function and fuzzy- set pair analysis which reflected the characteristics of same- indefinite- contrary system. Then it put forward the evaluation model based on analysis of fuzzy- set pair. Meanwhile,the weight of each index was determined by vatiation coefficient method. The connection degree and set pair potential were gotten through classifying plan index level of evaluation and constructing connection degree function. The paper finally gave the development trend and uncertainty rank of comprehensive level of every scheme of hydropower project so as to heighten the optimization efficiency of project scheme and reduce the investment risk of owner or investor.