人类活动影响下的北江流域径流变化特征及其变异性分析

由于受环境变化特别是人类活动的影响,水文水资源系统出现了新的特征。认识水文特征变异规律,对维持人类社会的永续发展具有重要意义。本文以北江流域主要控制性水文站石角站53年（1956-2008）径流序列为基础,运用趋势分析、跳跃分析、相关分析等方法,研究了北江流域径流变化的基本特征和变异规律。结果表明：径流年内分配不均,年际变化大,年径流量序列呈不显著上升趋势,1973年发生了一次径流增量跃变。从对降雨、蒸发、径流系数的分析看,径流在1973年发生了变异,利用降雨-径流关系,分析了人类活动对径流演变的作用,发现城市化发展和水土流失加剧等导致了北江流域径流发生变异。可见,在人类活动的影响下,北江流域径流发生了变异。

Analysis of change characteristics and variability of runoff in Beijiang river basin under influence of human activity

Due to the impact of environment change and especial human activities,the hydrology and water resources systems appear new features. Understanding the variation rule of hydrological characteristics has important meaning to maintain sustainable development of human society. Using the analysis methods of trend,jumping and correlation,the thesis studied the variation characteristics of runoff in BeiJiang River basin based on the runoff data of 53 years in ShiJiao station from 1956 to 2008. The results show that the inter-annual variation is obvious and the seasonal distribution is non-uniform. Runoff has no significant ascending trend and occured one jump change in 1973. From the analysis of precipitation,evaporation and runoff coefficient,the runoff varied at 1973. The effect of human activity on runoff evolution was analyzed based on rainfall-runoff relationship. The urbanization and soil erosion result in runoff variation in BeiJiang River basin. In conclusion,the variability of runoff in BeiJiang River basin has taken place under the influence of human activity.