工程项目风险多维度量方法研究

在回顾项目风险度量传统方法的基础上,提出多维风险度量方法.该方法从风险事件的发生概率、风险损失、风险的不可预测性、风险的不可管理性、风险信息的不对称度等五个方面全面度量工程项目风险;并运用模糊集理论和专家调查法对风险事件各维度进行量化,对各维度进行算术平均和几何平均得到风险因素的风险值;进而评价项目的综合风险状况为决策...

Study on the multi-dimensional measurement of project risks

In retrospect of the traditional measurement method of project risk,the thesis tries to put forward the multi-dimensional measurement method,which measures the risk of the project entirely from five aspects,such as risk probability,risk losses,unpredictability,unmanageability and the degree of information asymmetries.Then the thesis quantifies every dimensionality with the fuzzy set theory and expert evaluation method,and calculates the risk of every risk accident with geometric mean and arithmetic mean methods.In succession,it gains the risk status of the entire project to provide the basis for decision-making.Finally,it presents an application case study,in which the result proves that multi-dimensional measurement of project risk can reflect the real appearance of project risk in a more specific way and it is advantageous for us to get more information and grasp the rules of project risk.