北京市私人轿车的发展与能源需求

北京市的私人轿车保有量正以飞快的速度发展。本文首先对北京市私人轿车的发展历程及其能源需求进行了回顾,然后基于经济总量“翻两番”的目标,用“Gompertz”模型对未来15年私人轿车的发展趋势和能源需求进行了预测和分析。结果表明,到2020年,北京市人均私人轿车拥有率将达到0.34,接近OECD国家上世纪90年代初的水平。文章对减少私人轿车的能源需求提出了建议。

Development and Energy Demand of Private Vehicles in Beijing

Stock of private vehicle in Beijing is now increasing at rapid speed. Firstly,this paper reviews the development history and energy demand of private vehicle in Beijing,and then it forecasts and analyzes the stock of private vehicle and energy demand in next 15 years by using "Gompertz" model based on the assumption of fourfold GDP. Result shows that,by the year of 2020,the ownership of private vehicle in Beijing will be 0.34,closing the level of OECD countries at early stage of 1990s. Finally,it proposes the recommendations of reducing the energy demand of private vehicle.