基于功能小区方法的电力系统负荷预测

电力系统负荷预测是电网规划的基本工作。介绍了回归预测模型、灰色系统理论预测模型、空间负荷预测法、曲线法、最优组合预测法等中长期电力负荷预测的方法,讨论了功能小区的划分及功能小区的功能分析,通过对功能小区负荷预测的实际计算，结果充分证明了功能小区负荷预测与湖南省衡阳市城区发展的实际情况相符合。说明了基于功能小区方法的电力系统负荷预测具有重要的现实意义和广泛的应用前景。

A load forecasting method of power system based on functional area

Load forecasting is the foundational task of power system. This paper introduces several mid - long term load forecasting methods,including regression model, grey model, spacial load forecasting.s- curve forecasting, best combination forecasting and so on, discussing the division and function of functional area. Through practical calculation, the result proves that the functional area load forecasting corresponds with the actual developing situation of hengyang city of hunan province,it suggests that the load forecasting method based on functional area has important significance and extensive application prospect.