玉龙喀什河径流及气象因子演变规律及特征分析

选取玉龙喀什河同古孜洛克站实测径流及气象因子，采用Ｍａｎｎ－Ｋｅｎｄａｌｌ趋势性检验、小波分析等方法，系统分析了径流及其气象因子的演变规律及趋势性，利用霍尔特模型预测了未来５年径流量及气象因子变化趋势。结果表明:径流、降水及气温均呈现显著增加趋势，蒸发量表现为显著减少趋势；相关性分析得出气象因子中气温与径流相关性最大，其次是降水，蒸发与径流呈负相关；未来５年径流量、降水量和气温呈增加趋势，蒸发量呈减少趋势。玉龙喀什河１９８０年—２０１８年径流和降水在研究时间内变化趋势具有一致性，气温在未来将继续主导径流变化。

Change Rules and Characteristics of Runoff and Meteorological Factors in Kashi River

The measured runoff and meteorological factors were selected from the Kashi River and Gutzilok sections in Yulong.The evolution law and trend of runoff and meteorological factors were systematically analyzed by means of Mann-Kendall trend test and wavelet analysis,and the change trend of runoff and meteorological factors in the next 5 years was predicted by using Holt model.The results showed that runoff,precipitation and air temperature all showed a significant increase trend,while evaporation showed a significant decrease trend.The correlation analysis shows that air temperature and runoff are the most correlated factors,followed by precipitation,and evaporation is negatively correlated with runoff.In the next 5 years,runoff,precipitation and temperature show an increasing trend,while evaporation shows a decreasing trend.The variation trend of runoff and precipitation in the Kashgar River from 1980 to 2018 in the study period is consistent,and the temperature will continue to dominate the runoff change in the future.