时变条件下高堆石坝施工度汛协商演化模型

高堆石坝填筑施工过程以其挡水和过水的特点被广泛应用于施工度汛中。施工洪水和大坝的填筑进度直接影响中后期导流方案的选择，同时也影响施工度汛中不同利益干系人的行为决策，而方案的决策结果也影响着下一阶段的填筑高程及进度安排。本文通过高堆石坝度汛坝体挡水高程与施工洪水随机性描述了施工度汛的时变风险，结合决策者风险偏好及利益导向，引入施工方与业主方在不同度汛方案下的效益函数，运用微分对策理论建立时变条件下的高堆石坝施工度汛协商演化模型，确定其最优协商解及演化路径。实例计算结果验证该演化模型与实际工程结果符合良好，对高堆石坝度汛风险决策效率的提高具有借鉴意义。

Evolutionary negotiation model of high rock-fill dam construction during flood period as time varies

High rock-fill dam construction process with the water retaining and overtopping characteristics is widely used in construction diversion and flood prevention during construction. Construction flood and dam filling schedule directly influence selections of middle and late diversion schemes as well as behavior decisions of different stakeholders; conversely, decision scheme also affects the next stage filling height and schedule arrangement. The high rock-fill dam water retaining height and randomness of flood describe time varying risk of construction during flood period. According to risk preference and interest orientation, benefit functions of constructor and owner in different schedule are introduced; evolutionary negotiation model of high rock-fill dam construction during flood period as time varies is built by using differential game theory .This model can get optimal negotiation solution and evolutionary path. The case study shows that the evolutionary results agree well the actual project results. It is of greater reference significance to improve risk decision efficiency for high rock-fill dam construction during flood period.