| 新疆旅游业与经济增长关系浅析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨敏,罗辉. 新疆旅游业与经济增长关系浅析[J]. 资源与产业, 2008, 10(4): 83-86 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨敏 罗辉 |
| |
| 作者单位： | （1.新疆大学 旅游学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046； 2.新疆大学 资源与环境科学学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 采用现代计量经济学协整分析及Granger因果检验法，对新疆1990-2006年旅游业发展与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果发现：新疆国际、国内旅游收入与经济增长虽为非平稳的时间序列，却存在长期的协整关系；经济增长对旅游业的拉动效应在时间上有一个滞后期，短期内新疆旅游业发展与经济增长不存在相互因果关系，而长期内却具有均衡的因果关系；国际旅游收入对经济的推动作用在时间上超前于国内旅游收入。这一结论在一定程度上为制定新疆今后的旅游发展政策提供了一定的科学依据，避免盲目性。
|
| 关 键 词： | 旅游收入；协整分析；Granger检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-03-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-06-05 |
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH |
| |
| YANG Min,LUO Hui. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH[J]. Resources & Industries, 2008, 10(4): 83-86 |
| |
| Authors: | YANG Min LUO Hui |
| |
| Affiliation: | (1.School of Tourism, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; 2.School of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper, by means of cointegration analysis and Granger consequential check, analyzes the relationship between tourism and economic development of Xinjiang during 1990 to 2006 with the results implying that the both have a long-term cointegration, not continuous temporal sequence. Via the Granger Causality Test, the tourism always lags the economic development. There is no consequential relationship between tourism and economic development in a short term, but a balanced consequential relationship in a long term. The international tourism income goes ahead of the internal tourism income in pushing the economic development. This conclusion offers a reference to make policies for tourism in Xinjiang. |
| |
| Keywords: | tourism income cointegration analysis Granger Causality Testzz')" href=" #" > tourism income cointegration analysis Granger Causality Test |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《资源与产业》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《资源与产业》下载全文 |
|
