| 基于多模型组合的淮河王家坝断面洪水预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘家琳,梁忠民,李彬权,王 凯.基于多模型组合的淮河王家坝断面洪水预报[J].水电能源科学,2019,37(8):34-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘家琳 梁忠民 李彬权 王 凯 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源学院;水利部淮河水利委员会 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0402706）；国家自然科学基金重点资助项目( 41730750) |
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| 摘 要： | 淮河息县、潢川、班台—王家坝(息潢班—王家坝)区间地处山区与平原的交替带,地形复杂,目前尚缺乏精度较高的洪水预报方案,为此采用API模型、新安江模型及分布式TOPKAPI模型模拟预报了息潢班—王家坝区间流域2003~2010年的10场洪水情况。结果表明,三种模型预报结果相近,以三组预报结果为基础数据,再采用贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)方法计算,得到新的预报值。与单模型相比,多模型组合预报方法整体上精度更高。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水预报 水文模型 贝叶斯模型平均 淮河王家坝 |
Application of Multi-model Synthesis in Flood Forecasting of Wangjiaba Basin |
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| LIU Jia-lin,IANG Zhong-min,LI Bin-quan,WANG Kai.Application of Multi-model Synthesis in Flood Forecasting of Wangjiaba Basin[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2019,37(8):34-37. |
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| Authors: | LIU Jia-lin IANG Zhong-min LI Bin-quan WANG Kai |
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| Affiliation: | (College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University,Nanjing 210098 ,China;The Huaihe River Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Bengbu 233000,China) |
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| Abstract: | The Xixian, Huangchuan, Bantai and the Wangjiaba interval basin in Huaihe River are located in the alternate zone between the mountain and the plain, and the terrain is complex. At present, there is no high-precision flood forecasting scheme. Therefore, the API model, Xin’anjiang model and distributed TOPKAPI model are used to simulate the 10 floods of 2003-2010 in interval basin. The results show that three models have the similar forecasting precision. Based on the three sets of forecasting results, a new forecasting value is obtained by using Bayesian model average (BMA) method. Compared with the single model, combined multi-model forecasting method has higher accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | flood forecasting hydrological model Bayesian model average Wangjiaba Section in Huaihe River |
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