基于全寿命管理电网设备资产墙预测模型研究

随着我国电网事业的蓬勃发展,电网企业设备资产全寿命管理和资产墙模型分析方法逐渐得到重视。基于价值链管理理论,提出了一种基于全寿命管理资产墙模型投资预测方法,该方法引入全寿命管理设备资产价值函数,克服了经典资产墙简单平移推演的弊端。通过对湖北电网主变设备投资预测实例分析表明,采用此模型的预测结果比采用经典资产墙方法的预测结果更准确,可为电网企业设备资产管理提供参考。

Life Cycle Management Based Power Grid Equipment Assets Wall Predicting Model

With the vigorous development of China’s power grid industry,the life-cycle management of equipment assets and the assets wall models have been gradually gained attention by power grid enterprises in China.Based on the theory of value chain management,this paper proposes an investment prediction method based on the life-cycle management assets wall model.This method introduces assets value functions of equipment or devices according life-cycle management evaluating,and it overcomes the shortcomings of simple shifting in classical assets wall model.Taking Hubei Power Grid’s main transformers prediction as example,it is shown that the proposed model is more accurate than the classical assets wall method,and can provide a reference for the grid enterprises managing their equipment assets.