基于物元法的江西省水资源安全评价

在综合考虑水资源安全主要影响因素的基础上,从水资源、社会、经济和生态环境四个方面选取16个定量指标作为评价因素,采用层次分析法(AHP)确定评价指标初始权重,并采用投影寻踪法修正,引入物元分析法对江西省各市水资源安全进行综合评价。结果表明,2011～2015年江西省各地市水资源安全等级整体呈上升趋势,地域差距比较明显,其中南昌、赣州、九江等人口聚集且经济发展迅速的地区水资源安全等级相对较低,与江西省水资源安全的实际状况相吻合,评价方法可供类似区域水资源安全评价参考。

Water Resources Security Evaluation of Jiangxi Province Based on Matter Element Method

Based on the comprehensive consideration of the main influencing factors of water resources security, this paper selects 16 quantitative indicators as the evaluation factors from four aspects of water resources, society, economy and ecological environment. The projection weighting method is used to correct the initial weight of the evaluation index obtained by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). And then the matter-element analysis method is introduced to comprehensively evaluate the water resources security of Jiangxi Province. The results show that the water resources security level of various cities in Jiangxi Province has shown an upward trend from 2011 to 2015, and the geographical gap is relatively obvious. Among them, Nanchang, Ganzhou, Jiujiang and other areas with dense population and rapid economic development have relatively low water security levels, and it is consistent with the actual situation of water resources security in Jiangxi Province. Thus, the evaluation method can be used as a reference for water resources safety evaluation in the similar regions.