基于SDSM-SWAT模型的汉江上游径流变化模拟

为分析汉江上游流域径流对气候变化的水文响应过程,耦合了SWAT水文模型和SDSM降尺度模型,选用石泉和黄家港水文站1990～2005年历史月径流资料,对水文模型进行率定和验证,并将2011～2100年CanESM2模式下低等排放情景(RCP2.6)和高等排放情景(RCP8.5)两种情景输出因子降尺度到汉江上游流域各站点,生成未来气候情景数据,模拟流域未来气候变化下的径流响应过程。结果表明,SWAT模型在该流域径流模拟中具有很好的适用性;未来流域径流会呈现增加态势,RCP8.5情景较RCP2.6情景变化剧烈,且未来各月径流相对基准期变化更加剧烈,这为流域水资源管理与保护提供了参考与支持。

Simulation of Runoff Change in the Upper Reaches of the Hanjiang River Based on SDSM-SWAT Model

For the analysis of runoff hydrological response to the climate change process in the upstream of the Hanjiang river basin, this paper coupled SWAT hydrological models with SDSM downscaling model. The history monthly runoff data in the Shiquan and Huangjiagang Stations from 1990 to 2005 were selected to calibrate and verify hydrological models. Downscaling two scenarios output factors of CanESM2 RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 during 2011-2100 to the each site in the upstream of the Hanjiang river basin, the future climate scenario data were generated and the runoff response process was simulated under the condition of future climate change. The results show that the SWAT model has good applicability in runoff simulation. In the future, the runoff of the basin will increase, and the situation of RCP8.5 is more dramatic than that of RCP2.6, and the runoff in the future months will be more drastic than that of the base period. The results can provide reference and support for water resource management and protection.