HEC-HMS模型和TOPMODEL模型在东庄流域山洪预报的应用研究

水文模型是山洪预报的理论依据,不同模型间的结构、适用性、精度均不同。为探究HEC-HMS模型和TOPMODEL模型的特性及其模拟效果的差异,选取东庄流域10场代表性洪水,以峰现时间误差、径流深误差、时间误差和确定性系数为检验指标,进行场次洪水模拟。结果表明,两模型的预报方案在东庄流域模拟中各评定指标均达标,率定期均为甲等精度,验证期均为丙等精度。HEC-HMS模型和TOPMODEL模型对蒸散发的差异性参考,使得在半干旱区HEC-HMS模型的适用性更好。研究成果对于HEC-HMS模型和TOPMODEL模型在该区域的应用及防灾减灾有重要意义。

Application Research on HEC-HMS Model and TOPMODEL Model in Mountain Flood Forecasting of Dongzhuang Watershed

The hydrological model is the theoretical basis of mountain flood forecasting, and the structure, applicability and precision of different models are different. To explore the differences in the characteristics and simulation effects of the HEC-HMS model and the TOPMODEL model, this paper selects 10 representative floods in Dongzhuang basin, and uses HEC-HMS model and TOPMODEL model to carry out field flood simulation research. The maximal flood peak time error, runoff depth error, time error and deterministic coefficient are taken as test indicators. The prediction schemes of the two models are all up to the standard in the Dongzhuang watershed simulation, and the rates are all grade A and the verification period is C precision. The HEC-HMS model and the TOPMODEL model have different references to evapotranspiration, making the HEC-HMS model more suitable in semi-arid areas. The research results by HEC-HMS and TOPMODEL models have important significance for disasters alleviation and prevention in the Dongzhuang basin.