变化环境下北京清水河流域径流响应研究

为辨析北京市清水河流域在变化环境下径流量的变化情况,利用分布式水文模型(WEP-L)模拟流域水文过程,利用模型计算结果分析气候(气温、降水)和土地利用类型发生变化的情况下清水河流域径流响应情况。结果表明,汛期降水减少和气温升高导致年径流量显著减少;气候变化是流域径流量减少的主要原因;在气温不变的情况下,随着降水的减少,径流量减少的量逐渐变小,但减少率增大;降水不变的情况下,径流量随着气温升高先增加后减少,减少率变化不明显;降水减少是径流量减少的主因。研究成果可为水资源开发管理和土地利用的合理规划提供依据。

Study on Response of Runoff to Land Use and Climate Changes in the Qingshui River Basin of Beijing

In order to analyze the change of runoff in the Qingshui River Basin in Beijing under the changing environment, the distributed hydrological model WEP-L was used to simulate the hydrological process of the basin. And the model calculation results were adopted to analyze the runoff response in the Qingshui River Basin under change of climate (temperature, precipitation) and land use types. The results show that the annual runoff is significantly reduced due to the decrease of precipitation and temperature in the flood season; Climate change is the main reason for the decrease of runoff in the basin; In the case of constant temperature, the amount of runoff decreases with the decrease of precipitation. But the reduction rate increases; When the precipitation is constant, the runoff increases first and then decreases with the increase of temperature, and the decrease rate does not change significantly; The decrease of precipitation is the main cause of the decrease of runoff. The research results can provide a basis for water resources development management and rational planning of land use.