金沟河流域径流极值时间序列平稳性检验

为探究金沟河流域径流极值时间序列的平稳性,采用Pettitt突变检验结合M-K趋势检验法、轮次检验法、逆序数检验法和单位根检验法分析了八家户水文站1957～2016年径流极值序列。结果表明,金沟河流域的径流极大值序列为平稳序列,而极小值序列为非平稳序列;轮次检验法和逆序数检验法在合理分段数情况下能得到精确的检验结果,对于径流极值序列的平稳性检验具有适用性;单位根检验法在检验径流极值序列平稳性时出现误判。

Stability Test of Runoff Extreme Time Series in Jingou River Basin

In order to study the stationarity of the extreme runoff time series in Jingou River Basin, Pettitt test combined with M K trend test, rotation test, inverse number test and unit root test were used to analyze the extreme runoff series of Bajiahu hydrological stations from 1957 to 2016. The results show that the runoff maximum series in Jingou River Basin is stationary, and the minimum series is non stationary. Rotation test and inverse number test can get accurate test results under the condition of reasonable number of segments, which is applicable to the stationarity test of hydrological time series. The unit root test method appears to be misjudged when testing the stationarity of hydrological time series.