基于蓄满超渗兼容模型的山洪灾害临界雨量探讨

山洪预警是减少山洪灾害损失的重要手段,临界雨量的确定则是山洪预警过程中重要的一环。以裴河流域为例,根据山丘区实际情况,分析流域蓄水容量分配曲线与流域下渗能力分配曲线的关系,建立蓄满超渗产流兼容模型。通过参数率定,确定模型所用参数,模拟出的洪水过程洪峰流量与实际洪水过程洪峰流量误差均在6%以内,利用模型进行山洪预警的准确率为81.25%,与水文比拟法所得预警指标相比,准确度更高。

Discussion on Critical Rainfall of Mountain Flood Disaster Based on Excess Storage excess Infiltration Model

Mountain flash flood warning is an important means to reduce disaster losses. The determination of critical rainfall is an important part of the mountain flood warning process. In this paper, the Peihe River Basin is taken as the research object. According to the actual situation of the hilly area, by studying the relationship between the water storage capacity distribution curve of the basin and the distribution curve of the infiltration capacity of the basin, a excess storage excess infiltration model is established. Through the parameter determination, the parameters used in the model are confirmed, and the flood peak flow of the simulated flood process and the flood peak flow error of the actual flood process are all within 6%. The obtained model is used for the mountain flood warning, and the accuracy rate is 81.25%. Compared with the hydrologic analogy method, the obtained early warning indicators are more accurate.