Evaluation of the variance of production cost using a stochasticoutage capacity state model |
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Authors: | Lee FN Lin M Breipohl AM |
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Affiliation: | Sch. of Electr. Eng. & Comput. Sci., Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK; |
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Abstract: | A stochastic outage capacity state model is presented for evaluating the random error in power system production cost which is estimated via the Baleriaux-Booth approach. The proposed model is thought to be the first model capable of evaluating the variance of production cost of a system of realistic size. The proposed model is used to evaluate the normalized standard random error of production cost for the IEEE Reliability Test System with an 168-hour simulation horizon. The result is about 13%. An extension approximation is suggested for estimating the normalized standard random error of production cost for a long simulation horizon (e.g. one year) from the results obtained from a short-term (e.g. a day, a week) simulation. Using this result the annual normalized standard random error is about 2.7% |
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