基于雷-菲法的油气管道可靠性分析

影响管道安全可靠性的因素众多且具有随机性,因此直接求解极限状态方程比较困难。应用雷-菲法,求解过程简便且精度高。基于可靠性理论和B31G—1991标准,综合考虑腐蚀缺陷长度、径向缺陷深度、腐蚀速率、壁厚、管材屈服强度、管线内压等可靠性影响因素的随机性,应用雷-菲法建立腐蚀管道可靠性评价模型,编制了相应的计算程序。计算结果表明,缺陷深度是管道失效的主要影响因素;管道的可靠性指数随缺陷长度、缺陷深度、径向腐蚀速率的增加而降低,随着管材屈服强度的增加呈线性增加,随内压的增加迅速减小。

Reliability Analysis of Oil and Gas Pipeline Based on R-F Method

Factors that affect pipeline safety and reliability are numerous and randomness, so directly solving the limit state equation is difficult. The solving process of using R-F method is simple and high precision. Based on reliability theory and B31G--1991 standard, comprehensively considering the randomness of the corrosion defect length, radial depth of defect, the corrosion rate, wall thickness, pipe yield strength and pressure pipelines, using R-F method established a mathematical model for the reliability analysis of corrosion piping. The computer program for this method was developed. The results show that reliability index of the pipe decreased with the increase of defect length, defect depth, and the radial in corrosion rate and that the defect depth is the main factor of pipeline failure. The pipeline reliability index with the pipe yield strength increases in a linear increased, and rapidly reduces with inside pressure increasing.