基于马尔可夫过程的健康状态评估模型

故障预测与健康管理（PHM）的思想是通过状态监测和诊断技术获取装备状态和故障信息，预测其故障发展趋势，采取更有针对性的维修措施，从而大大提高装备维修管理的精确化。对装备系统的健康状态进行评估是实施PHM的基础，研究了基于马尔可夫过程的健康评估问题，运用马尔可夫模型方法，将部件系统退化过程描述为有限状态转移过程，建立了基于马尔可夫的健康状态评估模型，对PHM系统进行评估并对剩余寿命进行预测，最后进行了案例分析，验证了模型的可行性。

An Estimate Model for Health State Based on Markov Process

The concept of prognostic and health management（PHM） is to get the health state and fault information hy state inspection and diagnosis technique, and forecast the development trend of fault, then adopt the right actions for maintenance. It can make the management more precisely by applying PHM. The estimating of the health state is the basic of the applying PHM. The Markov model method is applied to describe the deterioration process of the system as a finite states transition process, and found an estimate model for health state based on Markov process. Using this model, we estimate the health state and predict the residual life of the system. Finally, it applies the model in the case to validate the usefulness.