| 灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在张家口市需水量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵阳,孙杰肖,韩会玲. 灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在张家口市需水量预测中的应用[J]. 水电能源科学, 2014, 32(7): 40-43 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵阳 孙杰肖 韩会玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北农业大学 城乡建设学院， 河北 保定 071001;河北省水利科学研究院， 河北 石家庄 050000;河北农业大学 城乡建设学院， 河北 保定 071001 |
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| 摘 要： | 为解决张家口市水资源供需矛盾,使有限的水资源得以充分利用,以张家口市2010年为现状年,2020年为重点规划年,2030年为远期规划年,运用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测了张家口市居民生活需水量、公共事业需水量和万元工业增加值需水量。结果表明,张家口市需水量在未来20年总体呈增长趋势,但后期增幅有所减缓,根据预测结果提出的合理化建议,可为供水系统优化调度和水资源的合理配置提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论； GM(1，1)模型； 需水量； 张家口市 |
Application of Grey Prediction GM (1, 1) Model in Zhangjiakou Water Demand Forecasting |
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| ZHAO Yang,SUN Jiexiao and HAN Huiling. Application of Grey Prediction GM (1, 1) Model in Zhangjiakou Water Demand Forecasting[J]. International Journal Hydroelectric Energy, 2014, 32(7): 40-43 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Yang SUN Jiexiao HAN Huiling |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Urban and Rural Construction, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding 071001, China;Water Resources Research Institute of Hebei, Shijiazhuang 050000, China;Institute of Urban and Rural Construction, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding 071001, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources of Zhangjiakou City and make full use of limited water resources, we set 2010 of Zhangjiakou for current situation year, 2020 for emphasis planning year and 2030 for forward planning year. Using the grey prediction GM(1,1) model, we predict the demand of living water, public water and the demand of value added of industry in Zhangjiakou City. The results show that the demand of water in Zhangjiakou City will be increased in following 20 years, but the growth will slow down. Rationalization proposals based on the prediction results can provide reference for reasonable allocation optimization of water system and water resources. |
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