华中地区电力负荷与气温的关系分析

基于华中电网六省(市)2010年3月~2013年2月逐日的电力负荷资料,分离出随气象因素变化的气象负荷,采用相关分析法分析了气象负荷与同期气温的相关关系,研究了气象负荷随气温变化的规律,探讨了华中各省(市)气象负荷与气温关系的异同。结果表明,华中电网气象日负荷与日平均气温的相关关系最显著,日平均气温大于20℃时呈正相关,日平均气温小于20℃时呈负相关;夏季日平均气温在28℃以上、冬季日平均气温在4~10℃时,气象日负荷对气温变化最敏感。

Relationship between Electric Load and Air Temperature in Central China

Based on the daily electric load data from March 2010 to February 2013 in six cities of central China grid, the meteorological electric loads, which change with weather conditions, are separated. The relationship between meteorological electric loads and air temperature and their variation rules are analyzed with correlation analysis method. And then the relations between meteorological electric loads and air temperature are discussed. The investigation shows that the correlativity between meteorological daily electric loads and daily average air temperature is obvious; the correlative coefficient is positive when daily average temperature is more than 20°C and negative when it is below 20°C; the meteorological daily electric loads vary rapidly with air temperature when it is more than 28 °C in summer and among 4~10°C in winter.