唐山市水安全现状综合评价与预测

针对唐山市地域特征和水安全现状,采用压力一状态一响应模型(PSR)建立了唐山市水安全评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确定各指标权重,对唐山市2004~2012年水安全状况进行综合评价,并在此基础上利用灰色系统模型GM(1,1)对唐山市2013~2020年的水安全状况进行预测。结果表明,唐山市2005~2009年的水安全状况处于基本安全状态,2012年水安全状况转为安全,但仍在安全与不安全状态的边缘波动,2013~2020年城市水安全状况会逐渐好转,但压力、状态、响应因子呈现不同的变化幅度,说明人类社会经济活动对水环境的影响较大,仍需加大水环境保护投资和水环境污染治理力度,提高水资源承载力才能形成生态环境与社会经济和谐发展的局面,从而确保城市用水安全。

Evaluation and Prediction of Water Security Situation in Tangshan City

In view of the Tangshan City regional characteristics and water security situation, pressure-state-response model (PSR) is used to set up an evaluation index system of water security. And the AHP is adopted to determine the weight of each index. Then the water security condition of Tangshan City from 2004 to 2012 is evaluated comprehensively. Finally, the water security condition during 2013 and 2020 is predicted with the gray system model GM (1, 1). The results show that the water safety situation of Tangshan City is basically safe in 2005-2009, water safety situation in 2012 is safe, but is the fluctuation edge of safe and unsafe state; urban water security situation will gradually improve in 2013-2020, but the pressure, state, response factors appear different variation range, which indicate a greater social and economic impact of human activities on the water environment. So, it should be increased investment of water environmental protection and water pollution control efforts, and improved the ecological environment of water resources carrying capacity in order to form harmonious development of economic and social situation. Thus, it can ensure urban water security.