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基于系统动力学的输配电网投资规划仿真分析
引用本文:唐永胜,王良,李晨,曾鸣.基于系统动力学的输配电网投资规划仿真分析[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(7):164-168.
作者姓名:唐永胜  王良  李晨  曾鸣
作者单位:华北电力大学 能源与电力经济研究咨询中心, 北京 102206;华北电力大学 能源与电力经济研究咨询中心, 北京 102206;华北电力大学 能源与电力经济研究咨询中心, 北京 102206;华北电力大学 能源与电力经济研究咨询中心, 北京 102206
基金项目:国家软科学研究计划(2012GXS4B064);国家自然科学基金项目(71271082)
摘    要:鉴于电网企业正从以最大程度满足用户侧需求为目的,逐步向同时追求保障供电安全和合理的投资经济效益的投资模式转变,通过确定电网投资与负荷增长、投资效益、政策因素和市场作用之间的相互影响关系及设定投资规划各子系统之间及系统内部的参数方程关系,构建了基于系统动力学方法的投资规划动态仿真模型,并以某地区电网发展数据为模型输入,对所建立的模型进行了多情景模拟分析,分别获得基准情景、负荷增长趋缓情景和市场力影响增加情景的仿真结果,验证了模型的有效性。

关 键 词:电网规划    投资效益    系统动力学    情景分析    动态模型

Modeling and Simulation for Transmission and Distribution Grid Investment Planning Based on System Dynamics
TANG Yongsheng,WANG Liang,LI Chen and ZENG Ming.Modeling and Simulation for Transmission and Distribution Grid Investment Planning Based on System Dynamics[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2014,32(7):164-168.
Authors:TANG Yongsheng  WANG Liang  LI Chen and ZENG Ming
Affiliation:Research Advisory Center of Energy and Electricity Economics, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;Research Advisory Center of Energy and Electricity Economics, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;Research Advisory Center of Energy and Electricity Economics, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;Research Advisory Center of Energy and Electricity Economics, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Abstract:In recent years, the investment patterns of power grid enterprises are transforming, in contrast with the purpose of meeting demand of the electricity user to the greatest extent, now the power grid enterprises are pursuing both security of electricity supply and reasonable investment cost-effective. This paper builts a simulation model for investment planning based on system dynamics method. Firstly, a mutual feedback relationship among power grid investment, load growth, investment returns, policy factors and market power is explored and established. Then, parameters and equations for the various subsystems of the power grid investment planning are set up. Finally, after inputting the grid development data of given area into the model, we get the results in three scenarios, respectively the baseline scenario, slowing load growth scenario and increasing market power scenario. The simulation results verify the validity of the model.
Keywords:
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