武汉市水资源承载力动态评价模型的构建及其应用

结合武汉市水资源的实际情况,采用系统动力学方法建立动态模型,并结合层次分析法确定各动态指标的权重,利用加权指数法和平衡指数模型进行定量计算,获得了武汉市水资源承载力综合指数和平衡指数。结果表明,与延续现状发展的方案对比,在开源节流治污的同时优化调整产业结构的方案下,武汉市水资源承载力综合指数增长了15.5%、平衡指数增长了5.2%,反映了水资源对社会经济发展的影响,表明采用开源节流治污的同时优化调整产业结构的方案,可以最大程度地提高武汉市水资源承载力。

Construction and Application of Dynamic Evaluation Model of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Wuhan City

Combined with the actual situation of water resources in Wuhan City, system dynamics method is used to establish dynamic model. And then the weight of each dynamic index is determined by combining with analytic hierarchy process. Finally, quantitative calculation is conducted by sing weighted-point method and equilibrium index model, and the comprehensive index and balance index for water resources carrying capacity in Wuhan City are obtained. Compared with the development of continuous situation, the results show that the comprehensive index of water resources bearing capacity of Wuhan City increased 15.5% and the equilibrium index ncreased 5.2% by adopting the project of increasing water diversion, reducing water consumption, controlling pollution and adjusting the industrial structure optimization. It reflects the influence of water resources on social and economic development, and demonstrates that the plan of adopting the project of increasing water diversion, reducing water consumption, controlling pollution and adjusting the industrial structure optimization can improve the bearing capacity of water resources in Wuhan City at greatest degree.