北京市水资源供需二次平衡的系统动力学模拟与研究

针对北京市水资源利用中存在的问题,对该市2012-2030年的水资源供需进行了系统动力学模拟。结果表明:北京市水资源供需矛盾突出,2020年和2030年分别缺水10.95×10~8和8.44×108m~3,缺水率31.33%和20.75%;二次供需平衡情景下该矛盾得到较大改善,2020年和2030年分别富余水2.36×10~8和4.43×108m~3,但这种富余是追求资源、环境保护而忽视经济发展而获得的,对于北京市来说不太能接受;为了维持经济、资源和环境的和谐发展,北京市需要增强人们节约、保护水资源的意识,才能保证水资源供需的长久平衡。

System dynamics simulation and study on the second time balance of water supply and demand in Beijing

In view of the existing problems of water resources utilization in Beijing, this paper simulated the water supply and demand for this city from 2012 to 2030 by establishing a system dynamics model. The results showed: the water supply and demand contradiction in Beijing is very prominent, with the water shortages in 2020 and 2030 of 1.095 and 0.844 billion m³ respectively and the corresponding water shortage rates of 31.33% and 20.75%. This contradiction has been greatly improved under the scenario of second time water supply and demand balance analysis, with water surplus in 2020 and 2030 of 0.236 and 0.443 billion m³ respectively. It is unacceptable for Beijing, as this surplus of water was achieved by emphasizing the protection of resources and environment and ignoring the rapid economic development. In order to ensure the rapid development of social economy and maintain water supply and demand balance and sustainable development, Beijing also needs more efforts to enhance the people''s awareness to protect water resources and save water. Only in this way can the long-term balance of water supply and demand be achieved in Beijing.