湖南省相对水资源承载力时空变化分析

采用相对水资源承载力的研究方法,分别以全国和湖南省为参照区域,分析湖南省及其14个地州市2000-2015年间相对水资源人口承载力、农业承载力和经济承载力的时间动态变化及空间差异。结果表明:湖南省水资源相对丰富,水资源承载力年际变化大,水资源承载力各地州市分布不均。从水资源承载力的动态变化上看,湖南省水资源承载的人口和GDP一直处于双重富余状态,而农业由富余状态逐渐变为超载状态,但是人口、农业和GDP水资源总量承载潜力较大,基本处于三重富余状态(除2011年)。从水资源承载力的空间分布来看,湖南省西部与南部地州市的人口、农业及经济水资源承载力潜力高,而北部、东部及中部地州市水资源承载力潜力低。研究为湖南省水土资源合理利用及经济持续发展提供科学参考。

Spatial-temporal change analysis of relative carrying capacity of water resources in Hunan Province

Taking the whole China and the whole Hunan Province as reference zones, the temporal dynamic change and spatial difference of the relative population carrying capacity of water resources (RPCCWR), relative agricultural carrying capacity of water resources (RACCWR) and relative economic carrying capacity of water resources (RECCWR) were calculated for the whole Hunan Province and its 14 cities from 2000 to 2015 were analyzed. The result showed that Hunan Province was at the stage of relatively abundance of water resources. However, the RCCWR for Hunan Province changed largely from 2000 to 2015 and it distributed unevenly across the whole province. The economic development was lagged. As far as dynamic change of water resource was concerned, both RPCCWR and GDP were in a state of double surplus, while RACCWR has gradually changed from surplus to overloaded. The RPCCWR, RACCWR and RECCWR were in triple surplus and the potential RCCWR was relatively high(except in 2011). Taking spatial distribution of RCCWR into account, the potential of RPCCWR, RACCWR and RECCWR was high in the west and south of Hunan Province, and low in the north, east and middle. The study provides a scientific reference for reasonable utilization of water and land and sustainable economic development in Hunan Province.