上海用电负荷预测中气温累积效应分析

用电负荷预测是电力运行管理工作的基础,随着“互联网+”智慧能源发展,由人工预测转信息化系统自动预测为必然趋势。文中选日最高温度为负荷预测气象特征,考虑气温累积效应,提出预测日最高气温修正法,并分析负荷与气温的相关性。最后给出基于决策树模型预测下一工作日最高用电负荷的算法。

Analysis on Temperature Accumulation Effect in Shanghai Power Load Forecast

Power load forecast is essential in government management on electric power operation. With the rapid development of “Internet+” smart energy, it is a trend to substitute artificial load forecast into automatic forecast based on information system. In this paper, daily highest temperature is chosen as weather characteristic in prediction model. Considering temperature accumulation effect, revision of highest temperature on prediction day is presented, and correlation of power load and temperature is analyzed. In the end, a prediction method of highest power load of next work day is given based on decision tree model.