熵权法-正态云模型在云南省水生态承载力评价中的应用

为科学衡量水生态承载力评价过程中的随机性与模糊性,将正态云模型引入水生态承载力评价,建立熵权法-正态云模型对云南省2006-2016年和2020年水生态承载力进行评价。从水资源系统、水环境系统、经济系统和社会系统遴选19个指标构建水生态承载力评价指标体系和分级标准,采用云模型正向发生器计算水生态承载力分级评价指标的隶属度,利用熵权法求出各指标权重,再根据隶属度矩阵和权重矩阵给出水生态承载力分级确定度并进行评价,将评价结果与模糊综合评价法、投影寻踪法的评价结果进行比较。结果表明:2006-2009年云南省水生态承载力评价为基本可承载,2010-2016年评价为可承载,2020年评价为绝对可承载;评价结果与模糊综合评价法、投影寻踪法的评价结果基本一致;该模型兼具模糊性和随机性,用于水生态承载力评价是可行的,可作为一种新的水生态承载力评价模型。

Application of entropy weight - normal cloud model in carrying capacity evaluation of water ecological environment in Yunnan Province

In order to scientifically measure the randomness and fuzziness of the evaluation process of water ecological capacity, the normal cloud model is introduced into the evaluation of water ecological carrying capacity, and entropy weight normal cloud model is established to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity in Yunnan Province in 2006-2016 and 2020. 19 indicators were selected to construct the evaluation index system and classification standard of ecological carrying capacity of water from the aspects of water resources system, water environmental system, economic system and social system. The membership degree of water ecological carrying capacity grading evaluation indicators was calculated by the cloud model generator, by using entropy method the weight of each index was caliculated, then according to the membership matrix and weight matrix, the degree of certainty for water ecological carrying capacity was acquired and evaluated. and the evaluation results were compared with the results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and projection pursuit method. The results showed that 2006-2009 in Yunnan Province ecological carrying capacity was evaluated as basic bearing, from 2010 to 2016 as bearing, and in 2020 as absolute bearing. The evaluation results are basically consistent with the results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and projection pursuit. The model has both fuzziness and randomness, which is feasible for evaluation of water ecological carrying capacity and can be used as a new water ecological carrying capacity evaluation model.