汉江流域（陕西段）水生态承载力评估

为缓解汉江上游支流污染严重、生态环境质量差、潜在威胁多等问题,实现对国家南水北调中线工程重要水源区的保护,提出了基于"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"框架模型的汉江流域(陕西段)水生态指标体系及权重,构建了可用于汉江流域水生态承载力的系统动力学模型。基于系统动力学和隶属度相结合的方法量化评估汉江流域(陕西段)水生态承载力,根据社会发展和技术水平设计7种调控方案研究汉江流域(陕西段)水生态承载力对方案的响应程度。研究结果表明:现状发展条件下汉江流域(陕西段)处于弱可承载状态,方案7实施后汉江流域(陕西段)水生态承载了将显著提高,达到基本可承载状态。

Water ecology carrying capacity evaluation on Shaanxi section of Hanjiang River basin

In order to solve the issues of server pollution from tributary in upper section of Hanjiang River, low eco-environmental quality and some potential threat and to protect the water resources in Middle Line South-to-North Water Diversion, the aquatic ecology index system and weight and system dynamic model which could be used to evaluate the water ecology carrying capacity were developed based on the frame model of driving force-pressure-state-influence-response. Based on the combination of system dynamic model and membership degree, the water ecology carrying capacity of Shaanxi section, Hanjiang River were evaluated quantitatively. Moreover, seven regulation scenarios were implemented to investigate the response degree of water ecology carrying capacity in Hanjiang River (Shaanxi section) based on social development and technological level. The results show that Hanjiang River is now in the low load capacity on the current development and the water ecology carrying capacity will be improved largely and it will be up to the basic load capacity after the implementation of seventh regulation scenario.