基于压力-状态-响应模型的城市水资源承载能力研究

水资源承载能力研究对于人口、社会经济和生态环境的协调发展具有重要意义。以朝阳市区为例,综合考虑该市未来人口增长、经济发展趋势,构建压力-状态-响应模型及其评价指标体系,分析计算当地水资源承载能力。结果表明,即使达到较高的节水水平,现状供水模式也无法满足朝阳市区未来对水资源的需求,外调水是朝阳市区社会经济可持续发展的保障。

Urban water resources carrying capacity based on pressure-state-response model

The study of water resources carrying capacity is very important to the coordinated development of the population, social economy and ecological environment. Using Chaoyang City as an example and considering the population growth and economic development trends, this study established a pressure-state-response model and evaluation index system to analyze and calculate the water resource carrying capacity. The results show that, even if a higher level of water conservation could be guaranteed, the present water supply mode cannot meet the future water demand of the urban area of Chaoyang City, so water diversion from other regions is required for socio-economic sustainable development.