| Abstract: | A statistical scale to assess the probability of violence in released mental patients was developed and cross-validated. A calibration sample of 251 adult males admitted as inpatients to a community mental health center and considered potentially violent was obtained. Data collected at admission (including demographics, family background, criminal justice and mental health system contacts, past violent behavior, and current situational measures) were used to predict subsequent violent arrests or readmissions during a 1-year follow-up period with multiple regression. A statistical equation of 5 variables was derived and applied to a cross-validation sample of 265 male patients. The correlation between the scores and subsequent violence in this sample was .32. Classification using a cutoff point obtained from the calibration sample yielded 75.8% correctly classified and a false positive rate of 47.6%. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) |
