实施风力发电、生物质直燃发电、光伏发电溢出成本全网分摊的可行性分析

可再生能源发电溢出成本分摊的可行与否从根本上讲,是取决于总分摊额度对总体电价水平的影响程度。总分摊额度不仅仅取决于分摊的电价,同时也取决于可再生能源上网的电量以及在全社会总耗电量中的比例。通过测算和分析,按照本建议提出的合理电价水平和开发规模,风力发电、生物质直燃发电、光伏发电对于全网电价上涨的影响是十分微小的。“十一五”期间每年全网每度电只需增加0.1152～0.3423人民币分,仅占电价的0.36%～0.96%,就可以实现:并网风力发电400万kW,离网风力发电8.8万kW,生物质直燃并网发电437.5万kW,并网光伏发电10万kW,离网光伏发电30万kW;三大类“绿色”电力年发电量达到306.73亿kWh,占全国总发电量的0.91%。实施这样的电价政策,对于我国风力发电、生物质直燃发电、光伏发电产业将产生巨大的推动作用,会出现跳跃式发展的局面。政府可以进一步采取阶梯电价的政策保护弱势群体,遏制高耗能、高污染的不良消费群体,从而减小提高电价所可能产生的阻力。采取这样的政策可以为增加一次能源供给、减轻环境压力做出贡献,为我国能源的可持续发展奠定基础;与此同时新兴产业会产生可观的产值和利税,利税总和大于全网补贴的总额;新兴产业将为社会提供几十万个直接就业岗位,并为2015年全部解决我国边远地区无电人口的用电问题做出决定性的贡献;显著地增加农民收入的支农效益。

Feasibility Study on Cross-subsidyto WindPower, Biomass Combustion Generation and PV Generation on all Grid

Actually,the feasibility of the cross-subsidy depends on degree of the influence to the generaltariff. The degree related not only the prices of the “green power”,but also the feed in electricity of therenewable energies as well as the total consumption. The study presents the reasonable prices of the wind,biomass and PV,and the proposal of the development plan of the renewable energies. It is obvious that theinfluence due to the feed-in green power is very limited. During 2006-2010,the general tariff would onlyincrease 0.1152～0.3423 Fen (RMB ),about .36%～0.96% of the general tariff. With such a policy,therenewable energies could realize the target: wind farm 4 GW,wind off grid 88 MW,biomass 4.38 GW,PV gridconnection 100MWp,PV off grid 300 MWp. The total output 30.7 TWh (about 1% of the total electricitygeneration of China). Such a policy will greatly support the industries of wind,biomass and PV. The govern-ment may implement different level of tariff in order to protect weak groups,restrict high consumption groups.The policy will contribute to prim energy supply and relies environment pressure,and build up a concretefoundation for our sustainable energy sector. In the other hand,the new industries will contribute substantialGDP,profit and tax. As the matter of fact,the sum of profit and tax will be more than the amount of the cross-subsidy. The new industries will provide hundreds thousands jobs. The farmers in remote areas will benefit tobe electrified,many farmers will get additional income from selling agricultural stalks.