广东电网WAMS增强SCADA状态估计研究

SCGM（1，1）模型是灰色预测理论在传统GM（1，1）上的进一步发展。文中首次将单变量的SCGM（1，1）模型应用于中长期电力负荷预测，分别阐述了简化SCGM（1，1）模型、均值SCGMMV（1，1）模型、拓广SCGMa0（1，1）模型的原理和特点，并应用于实例。同时将精度较高的后两种模型和GM（1，1）模型进行固定权值和变权组合，进一步提高预测结果的精确度和可靠性。计算结果证明该方法预测准确，可靠性高，抗干扰性强，是中长期负荷预测新工具之一。

Research on SCADA State Estimation Enhanced by WAMS in Guangdong Power Grid

Under the condition that WAMS and SCADA co-exist in power system, an experment is carried out on how to improve the performance of state estimation by WAMS. Different current methods of state estimation based on WAMS are given, applications of different measurements of WAMS are analyzed. The phase angle difference is adopted to make the measurements of WAMS be applied better in SCADA state estimation. Finally, based on the real-time characteristics of WAMS, a partly tracing state estimation method with WAMS increment is proposed. The method is tested on real-time model of Guangdong Power Grid at different load changing periods. The result proves the effectiveness and correctness of partly tracing state estimation.