组合预测方法在电力系统负荷预测中的应用研究

组合预测方法是一种性能优越的预测方法。选择了电力负荷预测精度较高的两种单一预测模型——无偏灰色预测模型和时间序列预测模型，通过它们建立了三种不同的组合预测模型，对我国电力负荷进行了预测，验证了组合预测模型的优越性。最后，通过对三种组合预测模型的预测结果进行对比，选择一个最适合电力负荷历史数据的模型，通过该模型对我国社会用电量进行预测，获得了较好的预测效果。

Combination Forecasting Method and Its Application in Power System Load Forecasting

Combination forecast method is a kind of forecast method with excellent property.In this paper,two forecasting models(Unbiased GM(1,1)model and Time series model)are selected owing to the precision of them is better.Three combination forecasting models are given and used to model for the power load of China,the forecasting result shows that the combination forecast method could get better result than any single model.At last,the forecasting results of three combination forecasting models are compared one an...