水资源调度中蓄水工程下游区间入流预报效益计算模型

本文通过分析有、无水文预报的水资源调度误差的概率分布函数和分布函数参数的确定，从概率的角度出发，建立了水资源调度中水文预报效益计算模型。该模型以区间径流估计误差值的方差、水资源调度供水保证率和调水过程的水库放水历时等数据为基础，定量地描述了水资源调度中水文预报效益的计算方法。实例应用结果表明：水文预报效益与有、无水文预报时的径流估计误差的均方差的差值成正比；并随供水保证率的提高而增大，即供水保证率越高水文预报效益越大，且水文预报效益的增长率也越高。

Model for calculating benefit of forecasting intermediate inflow from downstream of reservoirs in water resources dispatch

Based on the analyses on probability distribution function of error in water resources dispatch and the determination of the parameters of distribution function, a model for calculating the benefit of forecasting intermediate inflow is established. By using this model the benefit can be quantitatively determined according to the error variance of intermediate inflow estimation, guaranteed rate of water supply and duration of reservoir discharge in the process of dispatch. The application of this model to water resources dispatch of the Dongjiang River, Guangdong Province, shows that the hydrological forecast benefit is directly in proportion to the difference of mean square deviation of the error of estimated runoff between the conditions with and without hydrological forecast and increases with the elevation of dependability of water supply. Its growth rate increases rapidly.