基于风险的病险水库除险加固方案优化技术

目前病险水库的除险加固设计只偏重于工程治理措施,倾向于水库大坝工程的安全,未考虑除险加固设计方案对下游居民安全、社会经济、城镇交通等的风险以及对自然环境的影响。因此,基于风险分析的除险加固优化技术对于今后病险水库除险加固方案是有效和必要的。本文参考国外病险水库大坝安全和除险加固风险分析理论的最新进展,结合我国病险水库大坝和除险加固技术的特点,进行了除险加固方案与大坝风险关联分析与决策、除险加固方案评价指标分析和基于风险分析的除险加固方案优化技术的研究,提出了基于风险的病险水库除险加固方案的评价、分析和优化方法,为今后病险水库除险加固工作提供技术支撑。

Optimization techniques of reinforcement alternatives for hazardous reservoir based on risk analysis

At present, most engineering measures for dam reinforcement focus on dam safety without considering the risk presented to the downstream inhabitant safety, the national economy, the transportation net- work and the ecological environment. Therefore, it is effective and essential to analyze dam reinforcement optimization techniques based on risk analysis. Referring to the newest progress in risk analysis theory and relating hazardous dams in China and the technological characteristics of dam reinforcement, this paper has studied the relationship between the dam reinforcement alternatives and the dam risk, the guideline on reinforcement alternatives evaluation, and the technology of dam reinforcement alternatives optimization based on risk analysis. At the same time, a method to evaluate, analyze and optimize the measures for dam reinforcement was proposed based on risk analysis and the Chinese national conditions. This study will provide the technical support for dam reinforcement.