基于组合预测的供应链系统建模及其鲁棒状态反馈镇定

针对上游节点未能及时获取下游节点当前订单信息的情形,提出一种利用历史订单信息预估供应链下游节点企业订货量的线 性组合预测方法,进而将供应链系统模型化为一个含有多状态时滞的线性时滞不确定性系统,给出了供应链系统时滞依赖状态反馈鲁棒镇定的充分条件和状态反馈控制器设计方法.仿真算例表明,组合预测方法以及鲁棒状态反馈控制器能有效抑制牛鞭效应,显著改善供应链系统的性能.

Dynamic modeling and robust state feedback stabilization of supply chains via demand combination prediction schemes

In view of the case that present demand signals of the downstream sites are not available for the upstream sites of a supply chain, a combined demand prediction scheme is proposed based on the past demand signals of downstream sites of the supply chain. Then the supply chain under consideration is modeled as an uncertain linear system with multiple state time-delays. Some delay-dependent sufficient conditions of the robust state feedback stabilization of the supply chain system and the design scheme of the controller are presented. Simulation results show that, by using the designed demand prediction method and controllers, the bullwhip effect is reduced effectively and the performance of the supply chain system is improved remarkably.