石油企业海外投资并购风险的模糊综合评价

为了缓解了国内石油供需矛盾,中国石油企业坚定实施“走出去”战略,通过海外投资、并购获取石油资源是其中一项重要举措.实践表明,石油企业海外投资、并购所面临的风险要比在国内投资风险大,也更复杂.从政治风险、金融风险、技术风险和特定风险等方面提出了中国石油企业海外投资、并购的风险指标体系,在此基础上建立了投资、并购风险的多级模糊综合评价模型,并以中国海油竞购美国优尼科公司作为案例进行了实证分析.为中国石油企业识别与评价海外投资、并购风险提出了建议:在并购项目实施之前,并购主体应充分考察并购对象,对照风险指标体系并结合定性和定量的方法,力求得出合理的风险评价结果;在并购项目谈判过程中,并购主体应设定风险预警系统,为下一步谈判计划作出依据;不管并购成功与否,都应重视总结经验教训.

The Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment of Overseas Merger and Acquisition Risks Faced by Chinese Oil Enterprises

In order to alleviate the tight domestic oil supply,the Chinese government has encouraged domestic oil companies to go abroad.Merger and acquisition has been an important approach used by Chinese enterprise to getting access to oil resources overseas.Experience shows that oil companies face much higher risk and more complicated processes overseas than in China when trying to acquire and merge assets.This article describes a risk indicator system for oil companies’ overseas merger and acquisition activities,which involves political risk,financial risk,technical risk and specific risk,and establishes a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for assessing merger and acquisition risks based on the system.The article presents the case of CNOOC’s failed acquisition of Unocal for empirical analysis.Analysis shows that political risks resulting from the nature of petroleum as a strategic resource,non-market competition and trade protectionism are the risks entailing the highest precaution,financial risks and information asymmetry-derived risks run through the whole process of mergers and acquisitions,thus requiring special attention,contract implementation risks and operating risks are relatively small,and that the share of specific risks such as cultural shock and environmental issues is increasing.The article puts forth some suggestions for Chinese oil companies on the identification and assessment of risks in overseas mergers and acquisitions,including scrutinizing the objects to be purchased before making decisions,assessing risks against the risk indicator system using both qualitative and quantitative analytic methods,setting up risk warning systems during merger and acquisition negotiations and updating them with latest information on the object to be acquired,and learning from the experience,whether the acquisition is successful or not.