基于组合预测模型的长沙市长期负荷预测

在长沙经济发展预测的基础上，采用回归分析法、趋势外推法、灰色预测方法和弹性系数法等多种方法预测长沙城区2005-2020年的负荷需求，并结合这些方法，提出了基于误差权重因子的多种方法组合预测的思路，对长沙市的长期负荷需求进行了优化组合预测．对预测结果的分析表明，该预测方法是合理、有效的．

Long Term Load Forecasting of Changsha Based on Combined Model

On the basis of economic development forecasting of Changsha, many methods and models were adopted to forecast the total load and the zonal load from 2005 to 2020 respectively. These methods are of regression analysis model, trend extrapolation method, gray model and elasticity factor method. Based on these methods, a new combined method based on error-weight factor is proposed to optimally forecast load demand of Changsha. The forecasting results were presented and analyzed. The analysis shows that our methods are promising and the results are reasonable.