Applicability and calibration of an irregular cellular automata model for land use change |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Spatial Policy and Analysis Lab, Manchester Urban Institute, Department of Planning and Environmental Management, University of Manchester, Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, United Kingdom;2. CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, Rua Luis Reis Santos, 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal;3. Centre for Land Policy and Valuation, BarcelonaTech Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Av Diagonal, 649, 4a planta, 08028 Barcelona, Spain;2. James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland, UK;3. Departamento de Geografía Humana, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, C/ Profesor Aranguren, s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain;4. Cátedra Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres, Ciudades Resilientes, Facultad de Humanidades, Universidad de La Laguna, Campus de Guajara, s/n, 38071 Tenerife, Spain |
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| Abstract: | Cellular automata (CA) models of spatial change have been developed and applied in the context of large regional or metropolitan areas and usually use regular cells, with spatial interactions and transition rules operating within fixed-size neighbourhoods. Model calibration has also been an area of intensive research with many models still using expert-based input to ensure visual calibration of modelled land use maps. In this paper, we present an innovative CA model where irregular cells and variable neighbourhoods are used to better represent space and spatial interaction. Calibration is based on an optimisation procedure that uses particle swarm (PS) to determine the optimal set of parameters of the CA model. Hypothetical test instances are used to assess the CA model and its calibration to small urban areas. Our conclusion was that the use of PS ensures calibration results for the CA model that compare very well with results obtained through other approaches reported in the literature. |
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