基于经验公式建立的滑坡泥石流坝溃口形式预测模型

为了预测滑坡泥石流坝溃决产生的洪峰流量和最大水深，本文的目标是建立滑坡泥石流坝在自然条件下首次溃决形式的经验公式模型，包括平均宽度bc和残留高Hd两个溃口形式的特征参数，从而为制订防灾减灾方案或应急预案提供科学依据。通过野外考察采集的数据以及溃决特征分析，选取影响滑坡泥石流坝溃口形式的主要因子，分别建立了坝高H、有效坝长B、堰塞湖库容W、坝体鞍部单宽体积V、内摩擦系数tan 以及上限粒径d90共6个因子与溃口形式（即溃口的平均宽度bc和残留高Hd）之间的经验关系公式。最后，将经验预测公式运用到实例进行检验，误差较小。

An empirical model to calculate the breach parameters of landslide and debris-flow dam

This paper is to establish an empirical model to calculate the breach parameters of landslide and debris-flow dam under natural conditions for the first time, including the average width bc and the residual height Hd of the breach, and its purpose is to predict the outburst flood peak discharge and maximum water depth caused by the dam-break, so as to provide a scientific basis for the development of disaster prevention and mitigation programs or contingency plans for the lower regions. Based on lots of field works, the data is collected, as well as the analysis of the dam-break characteristics is discussed. Then we select the major factors, including dam height H, dam width B, volume of the dam-lake W, unit volume of the dam in longitudinal V, coefficient of internal friction angle tan and upper limit particle size d90, which affect the breach of landslide and debris-flow dam, to establish empirical relationships between factors (the average width bc and the residual high Hd of the breach). Finally, the empirical model is applied to the instance test, and the result is acceptable.