有色金属矿山企业现金流预警仿真系统研究

有色金属矿山企业经营环境存在诸多不确定性，伴随着较大的财务风险。现金流是企业发展的血液，因此结合有色金属矿山企业运营特征，对矿山企业现金流量问题进行预警研究显得尤为重要。基于现有文献，对有色金属矿山企业经营活动、投资活动和筹资活动现金流影响因子进行了系统分析，选取经营活动净现金流量、投资活动净现金流量、筹资活动净现金流量、留存利润、公积金和现金6个水平变量，经营流入、经营流出等10个流率变量及其他49个辅助变量，运用系统动力学建模软件Vensim-PLE构建了企业现金流预警模型，给出模型变量的主要数学方程式。以一家铜矿企业为例进行了现金流预警应用，通过调研企业数据，依据行业规定，运用统计方法、预警技术及数学方法对模型参数进行估计，设定了主要的常量参数，选取敏感因子进行仿真运行与结果分析，对有色金属矿山企业运营管理提出了有益建议。

Study on Cash Flow Forecasting and Simulation of Nonferrous Metal Mining Enterprises

In recent years，the common problems faced by non-ferrous metal mining enterprises are overcapacity，declining prices and unstable operating environment.These directly lead to greater financial risks.Some enterprises are on the verge of bankruptcy.Cash flow is the blood of enterprise development.Therefore，it is very important to make an early warning study on the cash flow problems of the operation activities，investment activities and financing activities based on the characteristics of operation of non-ferrous metal mining enterprises.Analyzing the dynamic balance of cash flow in terms of quantity，time，and structure ratio，and standardizing the operating procedures such as time，mode，cash inflows or outflows，it can prevent financial risks and play a proactive role.This paper analyzed the cash flow influencing factors of business activities，investment activities and financing activities.Selected six horizontal variables including the net cash flow of operating activities，investment activities and financing activities，retained profits，provident fund and cash.Selected 10 flow rate variables such as operating inflow and business outflow，and 49 other auxiliary variables.The enterprise cash flow early warning model was constructed by using the system dynamics modeling software Vensim-PLE，and the main mathematical equations of the model variables were given.Taking a copper mining enterprise for further application.Statistical methods，early warning techniques and mathematical methods were used to estimate the model parameters based on the investigated enterprise data and the industry regulations.The main constant parameters were set，the sensitive factors were selected for simulation operation.Taking 2017 as the initial point of simulation，the simulation period is 2018 to 2022.The simulation results show that the annual mineral output of the enterprise increases，and the amount of concentrate also increases，and the operating inflow will change with the price fluctuations.Net cash flows from operating activities declined in 2019，2021 and 2022.The environmental investment and total outflow of investment is tilted upwards，the increase in untreated waste is significantly reduced，and the curve is tilted downwards.Investment inflows are smaller than investment outflows，it lead to a downward trend in net cash flow from investments.After the increase of investment outflow，the capital pressure has increased.Under the lack of own funds，the financing demand has increased，which has caused the increase of financing inflow，and the net cash flow for financing has tended to increase.The simulation results are consistent with the actual results，which shows that the cash flow warning model built in this paper has a good applicability.This paper suggests in general that the investment decision should collect the detailed data information as far as possible，forecast the future cash flow trend，know the cash balance situation in a timely manner，do a good job in advance to cope with the shortage of funds，improve the profitability of funds.In business activities，when the net cash flow is negative，it is necessary to reduce production costs and give priority to mining rich mines.When the net cash flow is negative in the productive investment activities，we need to do a good job in the optimization and raise funds in advance.In fund-raising activities，it should pay attention to the financing method and cost in order to control the funding time and avoid the risks arising from the collapse of the funding chain.