Estimating the probability of fish encountering a marine hydrokinetic device |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region;2. School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA;3. Centre for Systems Informatics Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region;1. Laboratory of Environmental and Energy Efficient Design of Buildings and Settlements, Department of Environmental Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, Vas.Sofias 12, Xanthi 67 100, Greece;2. Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Saving, Solar Thermal Systems Department, 19th km Marathon Ave., Pikermi 19009, Greece;3. Process Equipment Design Laboratory, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece;1. Dipartimento di Automatica e Informatica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Turin, Italy;2. Dipartimento Energia, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Turin, Italy;1. University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Unska 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia;2. GULIN Automation and Control Ltd., Put kroz Meterize 33, HR-22000 ?ibenik, Croatia |
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| Abstract: | Strong tidal currents in eastern Maine, USA, make that region attractive for tidal power development. Little is known about the effects of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices on fish, yet many fish species use tidal currents for movements. We used empirical data from stationary and mobile hydroacoustic surveys to examine the probability that fish would be at the depth of an MHK device and may therefore encounter it. The probability was estimated using three components: 1) probability of fish being at device-depth when the device was absent; 2) probability of fish behavior changing to avoid the device in the far-field; and 3) probability of fish being at device-depth in the near-field when the device was present. There were differences in probabilities of fish encountering the MHK device based on month, diel condition and tidal stage. The maximum probability of fish encountering the whole device was 0.432 (95% CI: 0.305, 0.553]), and the probability of fish encountering only device foils was 0.058 (95% CI: 0.043, 0.073]). Mobile hydroacoustics indicated that fish likely avoided the device with horizontal movement beginning 140 m away. We estimated the encounter probability for one device, but results can be applied to arrays, which may have bay-wide implications. |
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| Keywords: | Fish Tidal energy MHK device Hydroacoustics Encounter probability Bayesian generalized linear model |
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