A method for the evaluation of risk in IT projects |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Departamento de Ingenierías TIC, Escuela Politécnica Superior, Universidad Alfonso X El Sabio, Villanueva de La Cañada, 28691 Madrid, Spain;2. Área de Proyectos de Ingeniería, Departamento de Explotación y Prospección de Minas, Universidad de Oviedo, Calle Independencia 13, 33004 Oviedo, Spain;1. Computer and Network Center, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan;2. Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan;1. Institute of Humanities, Arts and Sciences, Federal University of Southern Bahia, BR-367, Km 10, CEP: 45810-000, Porto Seguro, Bahia, Brazil;2. Department of Computer Science, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-carlense, 400, Caixa Postal: 668, CEP: 13560-970, São Carlos, São Paulo, Brazil;3. Department of Computation and Mathematics, School of Philosophy, Science and Literature in Ribeirão Preto, University of São Paulo, Av. Bandeirantes, 3900, CEP: 14090-901, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil;1. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Münster, Münster, Germany;2. Institute for Geoinformatics, University of Münster, Münster, Germany;1. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Energias Renováveis, Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Ceará, Maracanau, CE, Brazil;2. Área da Indústria, Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Ceará, Maracanau, CE, Brazil;3. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Informática Aplicada, Universidade de Fortaleza, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brasil |
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| Abstract: | Information technology projects are particularly prone to failure due to their specific characteristics, making risk management become one of the critical elements in IT projects management. That is why several authors have developed risk evaluation methods, some of them based on fuzzy logic. This article proposes a new risk assessment method based in a combination of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and fuzzy inference system (FIS). FIS is used for the integration of the groups of risk factors. These risk factors are the evaluation criteria of a modified FAHP which minimizes the disadvantages of the classic implementation of FAHP in order to obtain a more intuitive and easily adjustable model for multicriteria decision analysis with a lower computational need. The proposed model takes into consideration the different levels of uncertainty, the interrelationship among groups of risk factors, and the possibility of adding or suppressing options without losing the consistency with previous evaluations. The new method is especially suitable for the evaluation of development projects in the area of IT in which multiple interrelated risk factors can be particularly uncertain and imprecise. To implement the evaluation method, a hierarchy of risk factors was implemented. A numerical example is presented with data from three actual cases of IT projects, showing the applicability of the new method, the suitability of the selected taxonomy, and the significance of a few risk factors. Several future lines of work are proposed. |
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