新冠肺炎疫情对经济发展的影响研判--以天津市为例

新冠肺炎疫情的爆发,已经对经济平稳运行和高质量发展造成了一定程度的负面影响,但关于影响路径和影响机制的认识仍有待进一步深化。以突发公共卫生事件经济影响理论为基础,根据天津市193家企业调查问卷情况反馈,就此次疫情对经济发展的影响进行统计分析和实证检验发现,由于此次疫情较大程度地影响了劳动力供给、生产资料配置和金融信贷市场运行,感应度系数较高的产业和中小企业受此次疫情影响更为严重。

Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Development

The outbreak of COVID-19 has caused a certain degree of negative impact on the stable economic operation and high-quality development,but the understanding of the impact path and impact mechanism still need to be deepened.Based on the theory of public health emergency economic impact,according to the questionnaire survey feedback of 193 enterprises in Tianjin,this paper makes statistical analysis and empirical test on the economic impact of the epidemic.It is found that due to the impact of the epidemic on the labor supply,the allocation of means of production and the operation of financial credit and loan market,industries with high sensitivity coefficient and SMEs are more severely affected by this epidemic.