长江上游典型山区森林转型的时空格局及模拟——以贵州省遵义市为例

为了探讨长江上游典型山区森林转型过程,在长江经济带绿色发展背景下,以贵州省遵义市为研究区,分析了城镇化加速时期森林转型时空过程,并采用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型对2025年森林转型空间格局进行预测。研究表明:2000—2010年间遵义市森林转型特征显著,10 a间林地面积增加113 033.98 hm²;林地变化存在显著的空间分异特征;从土地利用类型转移看,新增林地来源主要是耕地,林地减少主要是由于水域和建设用地占用,林地的土地利用图谱变化以前期变化型和后期变化型为主;利用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型对2025年林地空间格局进行模拟,保持当前城镇化和经济发展水平下,未来15 a森林恢复仍将持续,但恢复速度趋缓。研究成果对指导长江上游生态屏障建设及科学认识山区城镇建设、经济发展与生态保护之间的关系具有一定意义。

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Simulation of Forest Transition in Typical Mountainous Areas in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River: A Case Study of Zunyi City,Guizhou Province

The forest tranition in Zunyi City, Guizhou Province, a typical mountainous area in the upper reaches of Yangtze River, is investigated under the background of green development of the Yangtze River economic belt. The spatiotemporal process of forest transition in the period of accelerated urbanization is analyzed, and the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model is adopted to predict the spatial pattern of forest transition in 2025. The research unveils that the forest transition characteristics in Zunyi City are significant from 2000 to 2010, with an increase of 113 033.98 hm² in the area of forestlands in the decade. The change of forestland is characterized by significant spatial differentiation. From the perspective of land-use type transfer, newly-increased forestland is mainly transformed from cultivated land, while the decrease of forestland is mainly due to the occupation of water area and construction land. The Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model was used to simulate the spatial restoration pattern of forestland in 2025. Under the current level of urbanization and economic development, the restoration of forestland will continue in the future 15 years; but such recovery will slow down. The research findings are of significance in guiding the construction of ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and scientifically understanding the relation among the urbanization, economic development and ecological protection.