ARIMA模型法分析网络流量

网络流量是网络规划设计、仿真、保证服务质量以及网管的重要参考因素.利用ARIMA模型法,在研究网络流量具有成长性、非平稳性的基础上得到了更为实用的结论.通过分段平均、取自然对数、一次差分可以把具成长性、非平稳性的网络流量变换为一个短时相关的平稳时间序列.通过对实际流量数据的分析,表明该方法计算量小、算法易于实现,可为网络建设的中、长期规划提供有效的预测手段.

ARIMA analysis method in network traffic

Traffic modeling and understanding are imperative to network design and simulation, to providing the quality of service(QoS), and to network management and control. In this paper, a practical conclusion has been arrived at that we can transform the nonstationary and growing network traffic to the domain of the stationary signal by the ARIMA modeling. By using this approach, we analyze the real traffic and the results prove the effectiveness and practicability of this approach. It is effective approach to traffic prediction in the middle/long-stage design of networks.