Assessment of offshore platforms under extreme waves by probabilistic incremental wave analysis

In this study, a novel probabilistic framework named Probabilistic Incremental Wave Analysis (PIWA) is established in order to assess the performance of jacket offshore platforms under extreme waves. The PIWA can take into account the uncertainties in three main elements consisting of sea state parameters, structural response and collapse capacity. The main advantage of the PIWA approach is reflected in decoupling of the wave hazard and structural analyses via an intermediate variable known as the wave height intensity measure. Despite the fact that most of the uncertainties associated with structural response are concentrated in wave hazard, this will enable the PIWA to estimate the probability of failure accurately. Moreover, both static and dynamic wave analyses can be utilized in the PIWA procedure. In this approach, multiple incremental wave analyses are employed to estimate the distribution of structural demand for a wide range of wave height intensities. Subsequently, the mean annual frequency of exceeding a structural limit state is calculated for which this research addresses two different methodologies including demand-based and wave height-based approaches. Furthermore, a new probabilistic-based Reserve Strength Ratio (RSR) is proposed and the probability of exceeding various levels of RSR is provided. To reduce the large number of simulations and hence improving the computational effort in the PIWA procedure, a combination of Latin Hypercube Sampling and Simulated Annealing optimization technique is utilized as an efficient sampling scheme. The PIWA procedure is employed in probabilistic assessment of an existing jacket offshore platform located in the Persian Gulf as well.