基于需求侧管理的城市电网风险评估

高受电比例城市电网中电源严重缺额，电网故障和失负荷风险极高，而用户负荷和系统风险关系密切。需求侧管理(demand side management，DSM)采取分时电价等方式来指引用户调整用电习惯，实现削峰填谷。研究了DSM对城市电网风险的影响，通过能效负荷优化和可中断负荷调度建立了需求侧综合管理模型，在此基础上，建立风险评估模型及指标体系，采用蒙特卡洛法对元件状态抽样，进而计算风险评估指标。结合某典型高受电比例城市电网实际进行风险评估，将考虑DSM风险指标与传统风险指标进行对比，结果表明DSM手段可以有效降低城市电网的失负荷风险，明显提升城市电网运行的安全水平。

Risk Assessment of Urban Grid Based on Demand Side Management

In the urban power grid with high proportion load and serious shortage of power source,the supply failure and load loss risk is very high.The demand side management(DSM)can guide consumers to adjust the way of electricity consumption by means of electricity price,so as to achieve peak-shaving and valley-filling.The load is closely related to the system risk.This paper studies the impact of DSM on urban power grid risk from the consumer side,and establishes the demand side integrated management model from two aspects of energy efficiency load optimization and interruptible load dispatching.Based on this,the risk assessment model and index system is established.The system component’s state is sampled by the Monte Carlo method and the risk evaluation index is calculated.The case study is carried out with an actual urban power grid.The risk index considering DSM is compared with those with the traditional method.The results show that the proposed model can effectively reduce the load loss risk of the urban power grid and significantly improve the security level of urban power grid operation.