一种新型天然气产量预测模型

随着气田进入开发后期，采气成本逐年增加，有必要加强天然气开采短、中、长期规划工作，以最大限度地降低采气成本，提高经济效益。为了保证天然气开采规划方案的科学性和顺利实施、提高天然气产量预测的精确度，根据天然气开采过程中的产量变化规律，选取了广义翁氏模型和一次指数平滑模型这两种常规预测模型，并应用最优化理论综合考虑了其特征，建立了一种新型天然气产量预测模型--最优化模型。通过对实际生产数据的拟合分析，可以看出：该模型一方面保持了广义翁氏模型的特征，另一方面又弥补了一次指数平滑模型的不足，实现了二者的最优组合，且具有更好的拟合预测效果。从现场实际应用来看，该模型预测结果较准确，适用于天然气产量预测。

A NEW MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

With gas field development going into its later stage,cost on gas recovery increases year by year.Therefore,it is urgent to strengthen short-term,midterm and long-term planning on natural gas recovery so as to reduce the cost to the greatest degree and improve economic benefit.Based on considerations of reliability and succeed implementation of the natural gas recovery plan,improvement of the prediction precision,and varying principles of natural gas production rate,generalized Weng's Model and Linear Exponential Smoothing Model were selected,combined and optimized in the paper to set up a new prediction model-optimized model,for natural gas production.Through matching with practical production data,it can be seen that this model retains features of generalized Weng's Model on the one hand,and on the other hand compensates shortcomings of Linear Exponential Smoothing Model.Better matching can be achieved by the new model due to its optimized combination of the two previous models.It also has been verified by practical applications.